Victoria Election Polls Suggest One Nation Surge May Be Faltering
Internal Greens polling and a shift in debate participation suggest Pauline Hanson's One Nation party may be losing momentum in Victoria as the election approaches.
At a glance
- Internal Greens polling puts the party's primary vote above One Nation at 14 percent compared to Newspoll's 20 percent figure.
- Opposition leader Jess Wilson criticized One Nation over uncosted policies as the Liberal party commissioned a Parliamentary Budget Office review.
- A leaders debate on 17 November will now feature Greens leader Ellen Sandell alongside Ben Carroll, Jess Wilson, and Warren Pickering.
New polling and shifting debate lineups suggest the recent momentum behind Pauline Hanson's party in Victoria could be slowing down. Internal figures released by the Greens indicate progressive support may be outpacing the minor party.
At the same time, opposition leader Jess Wilson has begun publicly challenging the party's economic credentials, while a planned leaders debate has expanded to include the Greens.
Polling and debate lineups
A survey handled by the Online Research Unit from 14 to 26 October involving 1,488 participants showed the Greens internal survey placed the party's primary vote at 15 percent and One Nation at 14 percent. This contrasts with a recent Newspoll which placed One Nation at 20 percent.
Meanwhile, debate organizers confirmed that Victorian Greens leader Ellen Sandell will join Premier Ben Carroll, opposition leader Jess Wilson, and One Nation Victorian leader Warren Pickering at a 17 November forum.
Scrutiny Over Policy Costings
Wilson recently launched her first direct public criticism against One Nation, noting the party did not plan to submit a full slate of policies for official costing. The Victorian Liberal party subsequently commissioned the Parliamentary Budget Office to review the sports vouchers for children and the baby bonus proposed by the party.
The PBO estimated the package at $688.7m, significantly higher than the $136m figure cited by One Nation. One Nation later acknowledged an error, stating the initial figure represented an annual cost rather than the total over forward estimates.
Analysis of polling and policy
The divergence between public and internal polling highlights the volatility of minor party support in the lead-up to the Victorian election. While major parties and the Liberals in particular are sharpening their focus on One Nation's policy credibility, the Greens are seeking to capitalize on progressive dissatisfaction with Labor to secure additional seats in both the lower and upper houses.
What to watch: Watch for the four-way leaders forum on 17 November.
Reporting from: The Guardian Australia. Spotted an error? Tell us.
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